Barring an off-the-charts upset, there will be only three games that matter in District 4A-5 this season, and the first of those games comes tonight when Mercer County visits Lexington Catholic.
That number is up from one, because the Boyle County-Lexington Catholic game is the only one that has been of any great importance — or great doubt — in this district recently. The improvement of Mercer and the fact that the Titans went toe to toe with the Knights last season means that you can’t count the Titans out of games against Lexington Catholic or Boyle, though they won’t be favored to win either one.
That they are in the conversation is a step in the right direction, but back-to-back losses — albeit to good teams — leave the Titans in an unpleasant position as they head to Lexington tonight. They are also hampered by the fact that their defense is giving up points in bunches, but that has been a problem for their opponent as well. Even in its wins, Lexington Catholic is getting scored upon at about the same rate as Mercer.
In fact, Lexington Catholic and Mercer are first and tied for second among teams with winning records that have allowed the most points so far this season. Lexington Catholic has given up 174 points (34.8 per game), while Mercer and Pikeville have each allowed 163 (32.6 per game). Any other team in Kentucky that has allowed at least that many points is at .500 or worse.
While the Titans and Knights slug it out in Lexington, Boyle opens its district schedule with a Taylor County team it has dominated in six meetings over the last 10 years. Taylor has put together a winning streak against a weak schedule, but don’t expect things to change tonight.
Danville returns to action after an open date with an important non-district game against Green County. The Admirals don’t necessarily have to win this game to save their season, but if they get blown out for a third straight game, it’ll be a sign that things are bad and getting worse.
Lincoln County steps back up in class for its District 5A-7 opener at Pulaski County, one of the top teams in 5A. The Patriots’ district looks pretty well balanced from positions two through six, but Pulaski is head and shoulders above the field.
Garrard County opens its 3A-5 schedule at home against a Bath County team it couldn’t beat last year. The Golden Lions will have four other district games, but they need this win if they want to make a run at first or second place.
Casey County looks like a good bet to get its first win — and effectively clinch a playoff berth — in its 3A-4 opener against McCreary Central, which had scored only six points in five games.
Here are the week 6 picks:
- Boyle County over Taylor County
- Casey County over McCreary Central
- Garrard County over Bath County
- Green County over Danville
- Lexington Catholic over Mercer County
- Pulaski County over Lincoln County
Last week: 3-0; season: 18-3 (.857).